Disclosure: Informa, which owns a controlling stake in Informa TechTarget, the publisher behind Marketing Dive, is also invested in Ascential, of which WARC is a part. Informa has no influence over Marketing Dive's coverage.

Dive Brief:

• TikTok ad revenue could hit $32.4 billion in 2025, a 24.5% year-over-year growth, if the U.S. does not proceed with its plans to ban the app. This represents 11% of social spend as a whole for 2025, according to WARC Media data shared with Marketing Dive.
• The U.S. is TikTok’s largest market and nearly $12 billion in revenue for the app is at stake if the social video platform is banned. However, ad revenue growth for the rest of the world is outpacing ad revenue from the U.S., potentially minimizing some of the damage from a ban, according to the data.
• Meta stands to benefit the most from a ban, as the company is predicted to catch most advertiser dollars spent on TikTok. WARC predicts 40% of the money will funnel into Instagram while 15% will funnel into Facebook.

Dive Insight:

Despite the sell-off deadline of April 6 fast approaching, there is still a major sense of uncertainty for marketers as TikTok hasn’t negotiated with potential buyers. However, President Donald Trump indicated he will most likely provide an extension for TikTok if a deal is not reached by then. Additionally, the administration has indicated it is in talks with four groups about the potential sale.

TikTok stands to lose billions of dollars in ad revenue if a U.S. ban is enacted, according to a WARC report. The money would likely trickle down into American companies, such as Google and Meta. If TikTok does go dark permanently in the U.S., Meta is predicted to absorb 55% of its ad spend. Platforms with short-form video options, such as YouTube and Instagram, stand to benefit the most.

While the U.S. remains the largest market for the app, the country’s share of total ad revenue for the platform has steadily declined over the past five years. By 2026, the U.S. is predicted to make up 34% of TikTok’s ad revenue, down from 43.3% in 2022. However, if a ban is avoided the app is predicted to earn $13.4 billion in ad revenue from the U.S. in 2026.

TikTok is the fifth most popular app globally, jumping to the second most popular app when just considering women between the ages of 16 and 24. Its ad reach is predicted to be 1.59 billion users, with users globally averaging 35 hours a month on the app. U.S. users spend an average 44 hours per month on the app, exceeding the global average. This far exceeds the monthly usage of other platforms and is more than double the average usage of Instagram.