For the first time in our lives, the upcoming presidential election could pit an incumbent against a former president. Regardless if there is a 2024 blockbuster rematch, the reality is that Democrat and Republican campaigns will be less focused on trying to court Democrat and Republican voters. Rather, 2024 will be a relentless pursuit of the most important constituency in the most remarkable election of our lifetimes: the swing voter.

Independent voters have made up a resilient 40% of the electorate or higher for nearly straight 15 years, according to a recent Gallup poll. Reaching those voters is a key reason this presidential campaign is forecast to be the most expensive of all time, with ad expenditures across platforms exceeding $10 billion. Yet even in this digital age, a surprising number of campaigners spend those extraordinary amounts based on the mystical alchemy of gut feelings and exit polls, guessing at swing voters’ purchase, programming and consumption patterns in an effort to reach them. And those campaigns’ ancient approach produces results that are just as ancient. 

This is where Stirista is a trailblazer. As one of the only firms to marry consumers’ connected TV consumption data from its robust identity spine with social affinity, purchase behavior interests, Stirista identifies voter clusters, offering savvy campaigns a crucial tool to identify, and then reach those undecideds. “We come from a consumer marketing world, meaning we aren’t just looking at political data — those segments that fall into the categories of party affiliation, donation history, or stances on issues,” says Stirista senior vice president of data strategy Blaine Britten. “We have the ability to look more broadly at consumer behavior, because that's where our data-gathering work is being done — at the consumer level.” 

Swing voter outcry

There’s a lot political campaigns can learn by winding the clock back 10 years. In the 2014 midterm elections, a Republican wave swept Democrats out of control in the Senate, and increased the Republican lead in the House of Representatives. In that election, 54% of independent voters chose Republicans on election day. Then, four years later, independents swung the other way, and an identical 54% of them voted Democrat. Loyalty to a political party may be on the wane, but the vast majority of those swing voters still ultimately pull a lever for Democratic or Republican candidates. 

Very little has changed in the years since. In this era when the polarized Red and Blue electoral edges are already becoming set, the malleable middle will decide this upcoming presidential race. Now, Stirista offers ad buyers unparalleled insights to reach those voters where they are, when they’re there. By stacking those voters’ past behaviors on top of one another, Stirista can even be predictive of the swing voters’ future behaviors, for campaigns to see if they are effectively nudging those independents their way. “You can see the Red and Blue political landscape already starting to form, but there is a growing population of swing voters,” Britten says. “When they suggest a lean in one direction or the other, we can enable advertisers to push that lean into action.” 

Stacking the database

Stirista has evolved its data services to offer full service, identity-driven marketing solutions. For an example of its consumer-informed political data, let’s work from the outside of the political spectrum in. Take a voter who lives in Texas; gets their caffeine fix from veteran-owned Black Rifle Coffee; and enjoys watching Yellowstone. Stirista has source data that identifies many of those individuals as conservative. Conversely, voters who live in a city like Denver, shop at Whole Foods and watch Handmaid’s Tale? They’re likely Democrats. 

Crucially, Stirista’s approach marries purchase patterns, programming affinity, content consumption and other data, helping identify voters that campaigns don’t need to reach. Then, Stirista can extrapolate out the ones they do. During the last general election, Stirista executives estimate, campaigns may have wasted more than a billion dollars in ad spending because they didn’t have enough granular information about purchase, programming and consumption habits of voters. 

Stirista provides that thanks, in part, to its ongoing companion ad services operation, including consumer data gathered every year — not just the even-number election years. With 360-degree consumer data, Stirista offers ad buyers unprecedented insights to connect with voters authentically — something that will be critical to this upcoming presidential race. 

“Sure, if money is no issue, then spend it like crazy,” Britten says. “But there are more effective ways to spend campaign funds, and we're helping give ad buyers the most bang for their buck.”