Dive Brief:

• The pace of global ad spending will slow in 2017 from last year, when record amounts of money went into the U.S. presidential campaign and Olympics sponsorships, according to forecasts by Zenith and Magna. Mobile advertising is estimated to grab a greater share of marketing dollars this year, while global ad spend will grow only 4.2% to $559 billion, down from 4.8% growth in 2016.
• Mobile ad spending will nearly double to $155 billion in 2019 from $79 billion in 2016, according to Zenith’s estimates, taking billions from magazines, newspapers and desktop internet ads. The share of ad spending allocated to mobile media will grow to 26% in 2019 from 15% last year.
• Zenith estimated that search and classified ads won’t grow as fast as digital display formats, with paid search growing at a rate of 9% a year, compared with display’s 14% annual growth forecast through 2019. As consumers shift to using mobile apps rather than web browsers, their search patterns will change, according to the forecast.

Dive Insight:

Publicis’s Zenith is the third media agency to revise its forecast downward for the growth in advertising spending after Dentsu Aegis and Interpublic’s Magna also published revisions this month. The companies cite slowing economic growth for the slower advancement in marketing spending, although parts of Asia will outpace the global average, per the forecasts.

The slower worldwide growth won’t stop the massive shift of money into mobile media as marketers seek audiences that are becoming increasingly attached to their smartphones. Online video will benefit from more high-quality content and improvements to the mobile viewing experience, such as better displays, faster connections and more viewer data to analyze, according to a Zenith statement last fall. Many people check their mobile devices for updates as a regular, ingrained habit, while social media ads blend seamlessly into their mobile app newsfeeds, the agency said.

Last week, the Interactive Advertising Bureau released a survey that found that two-thirds of smartphone owners use their device every 30 minutes or less, while 22% tap into their phones every five minutes. The survey also reported that 90% of smartphone users recall seeing mobile ads within the first few days after the ad was originally shown, while 86% recall ads from mobile apps, the survey found. About half of respondents said they took action after seeing mobile ads, demonstrating that they're an effective marketing medium, as consumers are becoming increasingly reliant on their wireless devices for gathering news, information and entertainment than other electronic media.

Mobile is the main driver of global growth in ad spending. While the overall ad market will grow by $69 billion between last year and 2019, mobile’s total will be $76 billion as it takes away from other media.