The clock is racing against TikTok as the Supreme Court weighs whether to uphold a law that could ban the app in the U.S on Sunday. The ban would cause significant disruption for marketers, challenging them to redistribute billions of ad dollars, and adds fuel to what is already shaping up to be a chaotic year for social media.
As marketers weigh next steps if the ban goes through, Meta's recent moves to step back its content moderation efforts could be a factor in their media-buying choices. The upshot of the recent social media tumult is that a lot of ad dollars could be in play this year.
“Social media is always a highly dynamic space. I would say the flavor and type of change often varies from season to season,” said Scott Sutton, CEO of influencer marketing platform Later. “Right now, there are huge catalyzing moments in political shifts, both through the election and through the TikTok ban, that are kind of shaping a lot of where the ecosystem is going.”
TikTok and its China-based owner ByteDance went before the Supreme Court on Jan. 10 to argue against a law signed by President Joe Biden that would ban the social media platform in the U.S. on Jan. 19, a day before the inauguration of the second Trump administration, unless it’s sold to U.S. ownership. Lawyers from the company maintained that a ban would infringe upon rights protected by the First Amendment, however, that argument doesn’t seem to have had much sway against the government's ongoing national security concerns.
The Supreme Court could come to a decision on TikTok’s fate at any moment, though the latest reports as of press time indicate that the platform is now preparing to shut itself down in the U.S. on Sunday unless government intervention permits it to stay. The ban would impact 170 million U.S. users and millions of content creators. It would also put a halt to a platform that has offered brands a powerful connection to the younger generation, a reality that has begun to set in as advertisers grow serious about identifying their next steps.
“Previously, when we had surveyed CMOs and marketers and asked about their plans around TikTok, and this was earlier [in 2024], they were saying they were spending more on TikTok, not less,” said Kelsey Chickering, principal analyst at Forrester. “Now … I think the sentiment is contingency planning, thinking about where those media dollars can go instead.”
Though there are some obvious contenders to receive redistributed TikTok ad dollars, other shakeups at giants like Meta could make these decisions even harder. Meanwhile, dollars spent on TikTok for commerce may have trouble translating. Ultimately, the looming ban yields a harsh lesson to brands on flexibility, the value of a diversified media mix and the importance of understanding the behavior of target audiences.
Redistributed funds
During last week’s Supreme Court hearing, Noel Francisco, an attorney for TikTok and ByteDance, argued that the platform would go “dark” on Jan. 19 if the ban is upheld. The ban would make it illegal for app stores like Google and Apple’s to distribute or offer updates for TikTok. Under the law, current users could still open TikTok on their phones, however, without updates, the app would slowly become unusable.
If the ban is upheld and the app functions for current users after Sunday, a continued presence on TikTok from brands to tie up any loose ends could still be beneficial, Sutton explained.
“I do think if you’re on the very end of a campaign, you’ve already deployed ad dollars, likely there will still be a healthy user base and audience there to receive the message unless there is more aggressive action taken by the government,” Sutton said.
Whether TikTok will remain usable is unclear. Sources familiar with TikTok’s plans have confirmed that the ByteDance app plans to abruptly switch off the app on Sunday barring any government intervention, The Information first reported. Under that plan, current users of the app who attempt to open it will be redirected to a website with information about the ban.
TikTok ban talks come as social media continues to grow as an advertising channel. Social media ad spending in the U.S. is expected to top $82 billion in 2025, up from $75 billion the year prior. While TikTok’s impact on that total is significant — U.S. ad revenue for the platform amounted to around $8 billion last year, per estimates from Madison and Wall — it’s likely that this year’s spending projection would remain similar, with dollars that once went into TikTok being sent to Meta and Google, Chickering said. However, dollars spent on TikTok for commerce, particularly through TikTok Shop, may not transfer as easily.
“Because TikTok has been so strong in that area, it might mean that some of those dollars go back into traditional performance marketing or search to support commerce efforts,” she said.
In predicting which platforms have the most to gain from a ban, Madison and Wall anticipates that 30% to 40% of spend would go each to Google, primarily for YouTube, and Meta, 10% to 20% to Snap and around 10% to 20% to other platforms. Regardless of where the ad dollars go, brand marketers’ focus on the type of influencers who have helped propel brands on TikTok isn’t expected to take a hit, said Zarina Stanford, CMO at Bazaarvoice.
“I think regardless of whether the TikTok ban is going to happen or not, that investment pool, if you will, is already increasing and that increase is going to continue,” said Stanford.
Life without a ban
TikTok has repeatedly found itself in political crosshairs since it emerged in the U.S., including through a previous ban attempt in 2020, during Trump’s first administration. Trump has since reversed his stance. TikTok’s most recent ban attempt gained steam last spring when the ban bill, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, moved quickly through the House and Senate before being signed into law by President Biden.
TikTok and ByteDance in May sued the U.S. federal government over the law, but it was upheld by a federal appeals court in December. Some have expressed interest in buying the app. A group of U.S. investors including billionaire Frank McCourt, and, reportedly, X-owner Elon Musk are among the most notable, though TikTok has said its divestment from ByteDance is “not possible.”
“What this is forcing everyone to do is understand and own their audience more, and be able to help engage with them directly and realize that the social network may not always be the conduit with which you communicate most effectively with your audience.”
Scott Sutton
CEO, Later
Trump’s team has also pushed to extend the deadline on the Supreme Court’s decision until after he’s sworn into office on Jan. 20, though no extension has been granted yet. While the ban being instated on Jan. 19 seems likely, there’s also the possibility that it falls through, whether through means like an extension, a divestment or a total strike down on the basis of the First Amendment. If the ban fails, TikTok would likely continue its upward trajectory, Chickering said.
“I think advertisers will continue to advertise more, I think creators will continue making content on these platforms and to some degree we’ll go back to business as usual, but without the loom of a ban,” Chickering said. “We might even see more dollars unlocked from brands who haven't even spent yet on TikTok.”
The decision would also live as a reminder for brands and creators on the importance of diversifying their content and platform presence, said Ed East, founder and group CEO of Billion Dollar Boy, in emailed comments.
“This will help creators and brands prepare for unexpected platform changes which we know are inevitable in such a dynamic and growing industry,” East said.
Social media chaos demands flexibility
As marketers strategize which platforms they will shift their dollars to, other actions across the social landscape could add to the turbulence. Meta earlier this month announced that it is discontinuing its fact-checking program and moving to a Community Notes system similar to that on X for clarifying claims made by users. The company also ended its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs.
These moves, which many view as an effort to appease the Trump administration, are likely a response to a larger shift in the political landscape, Later’s Sutton explained. While some speculate that the shakeup could impact Meta’s ad business, it could be hard to tell.
“It’s interesting because if you did have a pullback due to this, it would probably be overshadowed by a shift of dollars from a TikTok ban, assuming that scenario goes through,” Sutton said.
It’s also worth noting that while Meta’s moves harken to those made under Musk’s ownership of X, the latter app amasses a fraction of Meta’s audience, making it less valuable for most.
“It’s sort of a perfect storm of comments and changes from both the Meta and the TikTok side, but on the Meta side … the reality is that Meta isn’t X. It’s a much stronger paid media platform than X has ever been,” Chickering said. “I think it was pretty easy for advertisers to leave X and sort of take a stand, but the same wouldn’t be true for Meta.”
As marketers weigh their options, the looming decision could bring into sharper focus the importance of understanding target audiences on a level deeper than insights gleaned from any one platform, Sutton explained.
“What this is forcing everyone to do is understand and own their audience more, and be able to help engage with them directly and realize that the social network may not always be the conduit with which you communicate most effectively with your audience,” Sutton said.
