The 2024 holiday season is nearing a fever pitch as Thanksgiving and Black Friday approach and consumers prepare to make good on record spending intentions. For holiday marketing campaigns, the ambitious spending forecast coincides with brands' bets on buzzy tech and widened media strategies.
The Q4 period could be more cheerful for brands than in recent years, with research suggesting consumers intend to open their wallets wide. However, marketers still face challenges. Shopper behavior and preferences have continued to shift, tasking brands to juggle striking the right tone in their holiday campaigns while staying on top of the latest trends and emerging channels. Consumers have also shown a lack of loyalty in search of better deals. To land the sale, some are attempting to strike a balance between joy and value-based messaging, while others are hoping to seize the moment with some help from artificial intelligence (AI).
“Overall we see the outlook is merry and bright,” said Brian McCarthy, principal at Deloitte Consulting. “We’ve got increased confidence in the economy, holiday shoppers are planning increased spending this holiday season, with record spending intentions.”
Shoppers this year are expected to spend an average of $1,778, an increase of 8% over last year, according to Deloitte’s 2024 holiday retail survey. Last year, retail sales between November to January 2024 grew 4.3% to $1.54 trillion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data cited by Deloitte. The higher spend is attributed in part to a rosier economic outlook and perceived higher prices, a signal that, even though financial woes aren’t yet in the rearview, consumers are in the right mindset to open up their wallets.
‘Gazing into the crystal ball’
In another sign of economic optimism, more than one-third of marketers this season have a larger holiday advertising budget this year over last, according to findings from TvScientific and Rockerbox. However, increased bets come at a cost: 60% of marketers this season also report feeling more pressure to deliver measurable outcomes and return on investment.
As consumer behavior has shifted in recent years, confidence in obtaining desired holiday outcomes has been shaded by a wave of uncertainty, said Harry Guild, strategy director at agency BBH USA.
“I think maybe 10 years ago, the holiday season was always very set and it was such a familiar space ... Now, each year we have to do more gazing into the crystal ball.”
Harry Guild
Strategy Director, BBH USA
“I think maybe 10 years ago, the holiday season was always very set and it was such a familiar space,” said Guild. “Now, each year we have to do more gazing into the crystal ball.”
Among priorities this year, spending on gifts is expected to be relatively flat over last year, per Deloitte, while clothing and accessories remain the top gifts to give. Instead, many consumers are likely to place a bigger focus on experiences, like hosting, with spending in the sector forecast to rise 16% year over year. Online retailers (71%) and mass merchants (55%) are the preferred shopping destinations.
To reach shoppers, 41% of advertisers plan to increase their spend on connected TV (CTV) this year, per TvScientific. The channel was ranked as the top performer for holiday campaigns last year, with social media falling second. The majority of advertisers (54%) planned to activate for the holidays in the Q3, up slightly from 51% the year prior.
While timing and channel mix are typical considerations for holiday advertising, this year’s presidential election carries additional weight. Half of advertisers (50%) believe the political face-off will impact the visibility of their seasonal campaigns, per TvScientific’s report, which advises that the election could spur a shortened holiday shopping season.
Why multichannel is ‘table stakes’
For marketers to stand out this season, a multichannel presence is likely to be “table stakes” as consumers shop a wider swath of channels, per Deloitte. Simultaneously, consumers report that they are more loyal to retailers when they have consistent experiences online and in-store.
True Religion has opted for a more sprawling media strategy this year in hopes of shoring up new customers. The retailer’s campaign, which includes a tie-up with superstar Megan Thee Stallion and rapper Hunxho, spans in-store and online and includes out-of-home ads and content across editorial, influencer and paid channels including CTV, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram and Facebook. The push also will include its first audio campaign, while tests on Pinterest and Reddit round out the effort.
Having a throughline across the channels leveraged by the brand, like the repetition of certain colors or messaging, is key to maintaining consistency, said True Religion CMO Kristen D’Arcy. However, it’s just as important to strategize content native to each platform to appear authentic, she added.
“I think of it a little bit like matching luggage, but obviously there’s different sizes,” D’Arcy said. “Depending on where you interact with us, you will feel the consistency of the brand by way of tone of voice, also by visuals … but the content is planned differently depending on the channel to make sure it feels endemic.”
Marketing across multiple channels could also be key to sticking with consumers as loyalty comes under threat, with 62% of shoppers willing to switch to lower-priced brands while 25% report looking for “dupe” goods, per Deloitte. Timing may also be critical, with 38% of consumers having planned to shop October promotional events, per Deloitte, though the bulk of spending is forecast for late November.
Balancing joy with affordability
Brands attempting to strike a chord with consumers this season have led with varying messaging themes, though a mix of value and traditional holiday tropes is common.
For its part, JCPenney is doubling down on a commitment to working families by leaning into its successful “Really Big Deals Reveals” campaign. Amazon is opting for more emotional messaging with “Midnight Opus,” a global campaign that positions the e-commerce behemoth as the hub for heartfelt gestures. The retailer used a similar strategy for the 2023 season.
Walmart’s pop culture-heavy campaign highlights the moments when people find the perfect gift. A 60-second spot pairs the warmth of gift giving with iconic scenes from film and television series like “Gilmore Girls” and “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation.” The retailer’s focus on culture, which it similarly tapped into last year, is intended to help it stand apart in the crowded retail category while still highlighting affordability.
True Religion debuted its holiday campaign, “Where Holiday Wishes Come True,” in the fall with a major headliner in Megan Thee Stallion. The choice reflects stepped up efforts by the brand to connect with women, a segment that once led in a 60/40 split over the brand’s men's business. However, the split has since flipped.
“When we thought about the right talent for the campaign, we knew we wanted sort of a female powerhouse,” said D’Arcy. “We’ve really doubled down in the last couple of years on our focus of growing the women’s business.”
Reflecting expectations that consumers will spend more on experiences this year, SharkNinja’s global campaign starring soccer icon David Beckham positions Ninja’s kitchen appliances as a way to make holiday hosting easy. Convenience as a theme is also evident in Urban Outfitters’ “Happy LOLidays” campaign that promotes the retailer as a hub for stress-free gifting.
Tapping into trends
Some retailers are using the holidays to experiment with buzzy tech like AI. American Eagle’s seasonal strategy includes becoming the first retailer in North America to launch an AI gift guide chatbot on WhatsApp, a messaging app that dominates in international markets and is gaining traction in the U.S., explained CMO Craig Brommers. The Meta-owned platform is particularly popular among the retailer’s target Gen Z audience.
For the effort, American Eagle is leveraging Meta ads that invite consumers to chat via WhatsApp to find the perfect gift. Consumers who click into the ad will be redirected to WhatsApp where they can begin shopping with a prompt like “I need some gift advice.” From there, they will be asked clarifying questions like who they are shopping for, color preferences and hobbies until they are presented with a range of products.
American Eagle’s use of AI represents a valuable opportunity to be an authority for consumers as they ask the timeless question of what they should gift their loved ones, Brommers explained. The move also speaks to the brand’s eagerness to be first-to-market. However, that’s not to say the project was a rush job — it took the team months to iron out aspects like customer journey and tone of voice.
“We wanted to make it feel like you’re chatting with a friend or someone that felt like one of our store associates,” Brommers said. “How do you take that experience from the real world and put it into the digital world — [that’s] kind of been a little bit of the guiding principle.”
The gift of social media
Perhaps less flashy than AI but nonetheless worthy for holiday strategies is a strong mobile presence. This year, about 60% of both Gen Z and millennials plan to shop via their smartphones, per Deloitte. Additionally, 13% of consumers — the majority being the younger generations — plan to buy gifts on social media.
For brands vying to reach digital shoppers, minimizing the path to purchase, whether in-app or via social media platforms, will be key to landing the sale, said Emily Brown, senior manager of strategy at Billion Dollar Boy. Amid a year that marks the highest social investment observed by the exec, it will also be crucial for brands to move quickly if they wish to stand out.
“We’ve been working with brands for months on holiday planning, and so it’s going to be so congested that even if you’ve been working on a campaign for months, I think you also have to have a plan in place to quickly jump on trends that are happening,” Brown said.
One of social media’s shiny objects continues to be TikTok Shop, a platform that has been successful in driving both sales and brand awareness on the ByteDance-owned app, Brown said, particularly in the beauty and retail space. Still, TikTok Shop has had its pitfalls, particularly in regard to questions around its legitimacy and oversaturation in users’ feeds. To drive interest, the exec recommends brands consider selling a product exclusively on TikTok Shop, a move Coke explored earlier this year.
As marketers juggle various trends and mapping the when and where of their strategies, BBH’s Guild also urges brands not to think of the holidays as homogenous — there are numerous moments surrounding the season’s tentpole events that also represent key marketing opportunities.
“It’s not Christmas morning every day — you’re not eating chocolate for breakfast every day,” Guild said. “There’s loads of little moments in the holiday season. I think [it’s] understanding that it’s not a one-off event, it’s like 10 weeks of different stuff, and there’s different kinds of emotional turbulence going on, and then understanding how to pitch yourself throughout that.”
