The following is a guest piece written by Bradley Keefer, chief revenue officer at Keen Decision Systems. Opinion’s are the author’s own.
The Justice Department’s push to force Google to sell Chrome is shaping up to be one of the most significant developments in digital advertising in years. As the primary gateway to billions of daily search queries, Chrome plays a central role in Google’s ability to dominate search engine marketing (SEM). If Chrome is spun off, the repercussions could fundamentally alter the advertising ecosystem, forcing marketers to rethink how and where they spend.
This comes at a time when the digital ad landscape is already in flux. From rising costs in social media to the rapid growth of retail media networks, advertisers are navigating a sea of change. The potential breakup of Google’s ecosystem only adds to the urgency for marketers to adopt data-driven, adaptable strategies.
A pillar under pressure
Google Search accounts for more than 14% of total media spend, making it a cornerstone of modern advertising strategies. For smaller businesses, in particular, it’s a critical tool for driving bottom-of-funnel conversions.
Our data shows that SEM has consistently delivered higher ROI than other digital channels, solidifying its place in media plans. However, this dominance has come with steadily increasing costs. From 2021 to 2023, search CPCs (cost per clicks) rose sharply, but 2024 marks a turning point, with stabilization providing a welcome reprieve for advertisers.
If Chrome is sold, it could disrupt the tight integration that makes Google’s SEM offerings so effective. Competitors like Bing may gain ground, and brands could be forced to diversify their SEM strategies. For marketers who have relied heavily on Google Search, this shift could feel seismic.
Retail media networks poised for growth
As SEM faces potential upheaval, retail media networks (RMNs) like Amazon, Walmart and Target are well-positioned to absorb displaced ad dollars. These platforms excel in connecting ad spend directly to sales, a capability that has become increasingly valuable in today’s ROI-focused environment.
- Amazon: While Amazon’s CPMs (cost per milles) have been steadily decreasing since 2021, the rate of decline is slowing (-7% in 2024). Still, its scale and efficiency make it a top contender for advertisers seeking alternatives to Google.
- Walmart: Walmart Connect has emerged as a major player, with CPMs dropping 60% since 2022. By 2024, Walmart’s CPMs are just 8% higher than Amazon’s, making it a competitive choice for cost-conscious advertisers.
- Target: Although Target’s ad inventory remains premium-priced, it continues to attract brands focused on high-value placements.
Retail media networks provide not only cost advantages but also a level of measurability that is increasingly critical as marketers face tighter budgets and higher expectations for accountability.
An evolving battleground
While search and retail media adapt to potential changes, the social media landscape is undergoing its own transformation. TikTok and Meta are locked in a battle for dominance, and marketers are being forced to reassess their priorities as costs climb.
- TikTok: Ad spend on TikTok has tripled since 2023, but CPMs have jumped a staggering 50% in 2024. While TikTok’s reach and engagement are undeniable, these rising costs could temper growth if ROI doesn’t keep pace.
- Meta: Meta (including Instagram) remains a dominant force in social advertising, but its share of media spend has decreased slightly in 2024, returning to about 8%. Rising CPMs (+30% YoY in 2023) have been a factor, although costs have now stabilized.
- Pinterest: Among major platforms, Pinterest stands out for its affordability, with CPMs decreasing from $4.80 to $2.87 in 2024.
With TikTok facing regulatory scrutiny in the U.S., brands are hedging their bets. Platforms with established measurement capabilities, like Meta, may see renewed interest, particularly if TikTok’s ad costs continue to rise.
Programmatic advertising in flux
Programmatic advertising, particularly display, could also be impacted by Chrome’s sale. CPMs in programmatic have decreased nearly 30% since 2021, making it an increasingly attractive option for advertisers. However, if Chrome’s sale disrupts how programmatic ads are served, it could force brands to rethink their reliance on Google’s display and YouTube networks.
Alternative platforms like retail media networks and direct buys may become more appealing as advertisers seek greater control and transparency in their programmatic strategies.
A post-Chrome world?
The potential sale of Chrome underscores the need for marketers to adopt flexible, data-driven strategies. We see this moment as an opportunity for brands to rethink their approach and embrace new possibilities.
Key considerations include:
- Diversification: Advertisers must evaluate where they’re allocating budgets and identify opportunities to reduce reliance on any single platform.
- ROI focus: Platforms with proven measurement capabilities, like retail media networks, will gain importance as marketers prioritize accountability.
- Adaptability: The ability to pivot quickly will be critical as the landscape continues to evolve. Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) tools can help brands simulate scenarios and optimize spend across channels.
The road ahead
The sale of Chrome has the potential to reshape digital advertising in profound ways. While the disruption may create challenges, it also offers opportunities for innovation and growth. Brands that embrace change, leverage data-driven insights, and invest in cross-channel strategies will be best positioned to thrive in this new era.
Change is coming — are you ready?
