Dive Brief:

• Both Magna and GroupM are predicting that digital ad spending will outpace linear TV in 2017, according to a GroupM press release and reporting from The Wall Street Journal and AdExchanger.
• GroupM expects overall spending to reach $547 billion, an increase of 4.4%, but Magna predicts a dramatic slowdown in overall ad spending due in part to uncertainly around a Trump presidency and the UK Brexit vote from earlier this year.
• The two largest ad markets are expected to be the U.S. and China, with the latter taking a light lead in net ad spending growth.

Dive Insight:

Although digital spending continues to rise, Magna said 2017 will be the first year with zero growth for desktop ad sales with a permanent decline that will begin next year. The group also pointed to ad block technology for a shift to a mobile-centric digital ad marketplace.

Next year has long been pegged as the tipping point when digital ad spending finally passes linear TV and that seems to be the case with both Magna and GroupM’s forecasts making that prediction. According to GroupM, digital captured 72 cents of every new ad dollar this past year and is on track to grab 77 cents of each new dollar in 2017 compared to TV’s 21 cents and 17 cents for the same time periods.

While GroupM predicts an overall global growth of 4.4%, Magna’s outlook is more conservative expecting a 3.6% growth, down from this year’s 5.7% growth rate. The U.S. market will see an even more dramatic drop in growth from 2016’s 6.9% down to 1.7%, although the 2016 figures were bolstered by political ad spending and the Olympic games.