SAN FRANCISCO - Is the mobile Internet causing a revolution in the mobile ecosystem?

That was the opinion expressed during the day-two keynote address at CTIA Wireless I.T. & Entertainment.

"We are seeing the second revolution for mobile," said Shantanu Narayen, president/CEO of Adobe Systems Inc., San Jose, CA. "First was the voice revolution, and now the Internet is revolutionizing mobile."

Mr. Narayen said that there are three keys factors in the industry's sea change: "dynamic, dramatic" growth of mobile subscribers, "tremendous" innovation of mobile devices and the fact that consumers' expectations are changing.

Mr. Narayen said that 40 million Americans are currently accessing the mobile Internet, while 600 million people have access to a 3G network worldwide.

"That's just the tip of the iceberg," Mr. Narayen said. "More than one billion people in emerging markets will access the Internet without a PC in the coming years."

The Adobe executive said that 61 percent of consumers say they want their TV to connect to the Internet, and that move than 500 million TVs will be connected to the Internet by 2012.

"The relationship individuals have with handsets is changing," Mr. Narayen said. "They're demanding a more engaging personalized experience, not just on mobile devices, but on a wide variety of screens."
He said that 120 million game consoles with Internet access are expected to be shipped over the next three years.

"The various devices have different characteristics, and that provides an even more powerful experience for consumers," Mr. Narayen said. "We're definitely moving from a world with a single experience with the Internet to a multi-screen experience."

Adobe Systems Inc. is letting consumers take photos, upload, view and share their memories through a service that provides multiscreen interactivity (see story).

Mr. Narayen said that consumers will start to demand that these experiences be made available to them on their TV, PC, mobile devices and game consoles.

"This is a nice vision, but in reality these expectations are not being met," Mr. Narayen said. "Some sites work beautifully in multiple channels but others are not optimized for mobile, and when people upgrade or move from network to network, they get a different experience."

The plight of creators and developers, he said, is the rampant proliferation of devices and the decreasing shelf life of devices, which affects development economics. It can cost tens of thousands of dollars to text a mobile application for all of the various platforms.

"The cost of experimentation is way too high," Mr. Narayen said. "As an industry, we have to unleash creativity of developers with a 'write once, publish everywhere' philosophy."

He struck a common chord when he said that fragmentation is holding the mobile industry back.

"With all of the different operating systems and browser specifications and all the various players, fragmentation is resulting in a limit on the amount of innovation that is possible," Mr. Narayen said. "A model like this just can't go on, it's a chaotic ecosystem, and it does not make consumers happy."

He said that there is an opportunity to de-fragment collectively as an industry.

He cited five elements that need to come together for the mobile Internet to reach its full potential: better devices, improved networks, ease of development, open standards and rich experiences for consumers.

"The mobile Internet is so big, it will require each of the ecosystem partners to come together to provide the fertile ground for innovation," Mr. Narayen said. "We must bring the industry together to unleash the mobile Internet and give consumers what they're asking for."